From mechanism
to forecast.
We build causal models of the systems the world runs on: the atmosphere behind harvests, the climate behind risk, the grid behind power, the shocks that move prices and people. Built for everyone who has to act on what happens next.
Models of systems,
not curves.
Most forecasts fit the correlation and move on. We model the mechanism underneath it (identification, structure, the shape of the data-generating process) so the forecast survives when the regime changes.
Weather into yield, yield into price
Atmospheric and reanalysis data turned into crop-yield and food-price signals, resolved by geography, crop and phenology window.
Physical climate, repriced
Physical climate translated into asset-level impact: which cashflows move, by how much, and when the market actually reprices them.
The grid, from the inside
Interconnector capacity, merit-order economics and firm-level supply modelled into day-ahead and forward power across coupled European markets.
Shocks that travel
Weather-driven softs, metals and freight, with the energy-shock pass-through that ties otherwise separate markets together.
Built to order for the system you're exposed to. If it has a mechanism, we can model it.
Identify it. Validate it.
Deliver it.
Identify the mechanism
We start from the causal structure (what drives what, under which conditions), not from whatever correlation the last six months happen to show.
Validate on real data
Every model is tested on real, out-of-sample data. We publish the methodology and the results, including the ones that don't work.
Deliver the model
You receive a licensed, documented and monitored model: a signal, a forecast feed, or a full pricing layer that plugs into your stack.
If you depend on the
system, you can see it coming.
Our models are built for anyone whose decisions move with weather, climate, energy, food or the movement of people.
The same chains decide
more than prices.
Weather to harvest, shock to shortage, climate to displacement. These mechanisms decide harvests, outbreaks and migrations before they decide prices.
The commercial core of our work is in markets. The models are not. If you work in global health, food security, humanitarian response, disaster risk or migration, and an earlier, better forecast would change what you can do, write to us. We keep capacity for this work, and the absence of a budget is not a reason not to get in touch.
We show our work.
Public, empirical notes on real data. We publish method and results. The edge stays private; the rigour is on the table.