Research · Notes from the desk
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Public, empirical notes on real data. We publish the methodology and the results, including the negative ones. The edge stays private; the rigour is on the table.
CS/RES/01
Fertilizer to foodA causal chain from natural gas to consumer food prices. Lead-lag over 25 years of monthly data, peaking at correlation 0.30 with a five-month lag.
CS/RES/02
News sensitivity by asset class33 instruments, 7 asset classes, 1,079 days, GDELT 2.0. Which markets respond, and on which timescale.
CS/RES/03
Cocoa, coffee, sugarThree weather-driven softs in narrow geographies: a West Africa drought signal, a Brazil frost-and-heat signal, and a cross-cutting energy-shock response.
CS/RES/04
Rare earth to robotWhere the world's robots actually come from. China's grip tightens upstream: ~88% of refining, ~92% of NdFeB magnets, and one licensing regime with a November 2026 expiry.
CS/RES/05
Factories to carbonA demand-side model of EU allowance prices: 5% of monthly variance on the full sample, 63% when the regime activates, and a boundary that is diagnosable in advance.
CS/RES/06
Winter came earlyElectrification is bending New England's load and cost curves: the cold-side slope up 29%, winter past summer in energy, and the cold sensitivity of price tripled. For planners.
CS/RES/07
The Sudan gold machineHow conflict gold reaches compliant supply chains: mapped, cited, monitorable. Teaser; the full 47-node causal map is the paid brief.
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